Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts
المؤلف
المصدر
Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology
العدد
المجلد 2019، العدد 2019 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2019)، ص ص. 1-7، 7ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2019-07-30
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
7
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Background.
Household contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) are at great risk of TB infection.
The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of TB transmission among household contacts.
Method.
This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study, in which a total of 700 TB patients and 3417 household contacts were enrolled between 2010 and 2013 at two study sites in Peru.
The incidence of secondary TB cases among household contacts of index cases was recorded.
The LASSO regression method was used to reduce the data dimension and to filter variables.
Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to develop the predictive model, and internal validation was performed.
A nomogram was constructed to display the model, and the AUC was calculated.
The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated.
Results.
The incidence of TB disease among the contacts of index cases was 4.4% (149/3417).
Ten variables (gender, age, TB history, diabetes, HIV, index patient’s drug resistance, socioeconomic status, spoligotypes, and the index-contact share sleeping room status) filtered through the LASSO regression technique were finally included in the predictive model.
The model showed good discriminatory ability, with an AUC value of 0.761 (95% CI, 0.723–0.800) for the derivation and 0.759 (95% CI, 0.717–0.796) for the internal validation.
The predictive model showed good calibration, and the DCA demonstrated that the model was clinically useful.
Conclusion.
A predictive model was developed that incorporates characteristics of both the index patients and the contacts, which may be of great value for the individualized prediction of TB transmission among household contacts.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Wang, Saibin. 2019. Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1130068
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Wang, Saibin. Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1130068
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Wang, Saibin. Development of a Predictive Model of Tuberculosis Transmission among Household Contacts. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1130068
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1130068
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر