A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Sunspots Time Series Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Backpropagation Neural Network Improved by Firefly Algorithm

الملخص EN

The change of the number of sunspots has a great impact on the Earth’s climate, agriculture, communications, natural disasters, and other aspects, so it is very important to predict the number of sunspots.

Aiming at the chaotic characteristics of monthly mean of sunspots, a novel hybrid model for forecasting sunspots time-series based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and backpropagation (BP) neural network improved by firefly algorithm (FA) is proposed.

Firstly, a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are obtained by VMD decomposition of the monthly mean time series of the sunspots.

Secondly, the firefly algorithm is introduced to initialize the weights and thresholds of the BP neural network, and a prediction model is established for each IMF.

Finally, the predicted values of these components are calculated to obtain the final predict results.

Comparing BP model, FA-BP model, EMD-BP model, and VMD-BP model, the simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has higher prediction accuracy and can be used to forecast the time series of sunspots.