Stochastic Periodic Solution of a Susceptible-Infective Epidemic Model in a Polluted Environment under Environmental Fluctuation

الملخص EN

It is well known that the pollution and environmental fluctuations may seriously affect the outbreak of infectious diseases (e.g., measles).

Therefore, understanding the association between the periodic outbreak of an infectious disease and noise and pollution still needs further development.

Here we consider a stochastic susceptible-infective (SI) epidemic model in a polluted environment, which incorporates both environmental fluctuations as well as pollution.

First, the existence of the global positive solution is discussed.

Thereafter, the sufficient conditions for the nontrivial stochastic periodic solution and the boundary periodic solution of disease extinction are derived, respectively.

Numerical simulation is also conducted in order to support the theoretical results.

Our study shows that (i) large intensity noise may help the control of periodic outbreak of infectious disease; (ii) pollution may significantly affect the peak level of infective population and cause adverse health effects on the exposed population.

These results can help increase the understanding of periodic outbreak patterns of infectious diseases.