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Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method
المؤلفون المشاركون
Attanayake, A. M. C. H.
Perera, S. S. N.
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-11، 11ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2020-12-11
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
11
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
COVID-19 is a pandemic which has spread to more than 200 countries.
Its high transmission rate makes it difficult to control.
To date, no specific treatment has been found as a cure for the disease.
Therefore, prediction of COVID-19 cases provides a useful insight to mitigate the disease.
This study aims to model and predict COVID-19 cases.
Eight countries: Italy, New Zealand, the USA, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa which are in different phases of COVID-19 distribution as well as in different socioeconomic and geographical characteristics were selected as test cases.
The Alpha-Sutte Indicator approach was utilized as the modelling strategy.
The capability of the approach in modelling COVID-19 cases over the ARIMA method was tested in the study.
Data consist of accumulated COVID-19 cases present in the selected countries from the first day of the presence of cases to September 26, 2020.
Ten percent of the data were used to validate the modelling approach.
The analysis disclosed that the Alpha-Sutte modelling approach is appropriate in modelling cumulative COVID-19 cases over ARIMA by reporting 0.11%, 0.33%, 0.08%, 0.72%, 0.12%, 0.03%, 1.28%, and 0.08% of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the USA, Brazil, Italy, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa, respectively.
Differences between forecasted and real cases of COVID-19 in the validation set were tested using the paired t-test.
The differences were not statistically significant, revealing the effectiveness of the modelling approach.
Thus, predictions were generated using the Alpha-Sutte approach for each country.
Therefore, the Alpha-Sutte method can be recommended for short-term forecasting of cumulative COVID-19 incidences.
The authorities in the health care sector and other administrators may use the predictions to control and manage the COVID-19 cases.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Attanayake, A. M. C. H.& Perera, S. S. N.. 2020. Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1137754
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Attanayake, A. M. C. H.& Perera, S. S. N.. Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method. BioMed Research International No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1137754
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Attanayake, A. M. C. H.& Perera, S. S. N.. Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method. BioMed Research International. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1137754
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1137754
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر
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