A Nomogram Based on Apelin-12 for the Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention among Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

الملخص EN

Objective.

This study aimed to establish a clinical prognostic nomogram for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Methods.

Information on 464 patients with STEMI who performed PCI procedures was included.

After removing patients with incomplete clinical information, a total of 460 patients followed for 2.5 years were randomly divided into evaluation (n = 324) and validation (n = 136) cohorts.

A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify the significant factors associated with MACEs in the evaluation cohort, and then they were incorporated into the nomogram.

The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

Results.

Apelin-12 change rate, apelin-12 level, age, pathological Q wave, myocardial infarction history, anterior wall myocardial infarction, Killip’s classification > I, uric acid, total cholesterol, cTnI, and the left atrial diameter were independently associated with MACEs (all P<0.05).

After incorporating these 11 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.758 (95%CI = 0.707–0.809) and 0.763 (95%CI = 0.689–0.837) in predicting MACEs in the evaluation and validation cohorts, respectively, and had well-fitted calibration curves.

The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions.

We established and validated a novel nomogram that can provide individual prediction of MACEs for patients with STEMI after PCI procedures in a Chinese population.

This practical prognostic nomogram may help clinicians in decision making and enable a more accurate risk assessment.