Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey
المؤلفون المشاركون
Niazkar, Majid
Eryılmaz Türkkan, Gökçen
Niazkar, Hamid Reza
Türkkan, Yusuf Alptekin
المصدر
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
العدد
المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-13، 13ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2020-11-25
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
13
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
COVID-19 pandemic has become a concern of every nation, and it is crucial to apply an estimation model with a favorably-high accuracy to provide an accurate perspective of the situation.
In this study, three explicit mathematical prediction models were applied to forecast the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and Turkey.
These models include a recursive-based method, Boltzmann Function-based model and Beesham’s prediction model.
These models were exploited to analyze the confirmed and death cases of the first 106 and 87 days of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and Turkey, respectively.
This application indicates that the three models fail to predict the first 10 to 20 days of data, depending on the prediction model.
On the other hand, the results obtained for the rest of the data demonstrate that the three prediction models achieve high values for the determination coefficient, whereas they yielded to different average absolute relative errors.
Based on the comparison, the recursive-based model performs the best, while it estimated the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran better than that of in Turkey.
Impacts of applying or relaxing control measurements like curfew in Turkey and reopening the low-risk businesses in Iran were investigated through the recursive-based model.
Finally, the results demonstrate the merit of the recursive-based model in analyzing various scenarios, which may provide suitable information for health politicians and public health decision-makers.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Niazkar, Majid& Eryılmaz Türkkan, Gökçen& Niazkar, Hamid Reza& Türkkan, Yusuf Alptekin. 2020. Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139541
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Niazkar, Majid…[et al.]. Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139541
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Niazkar, Majid& Eryılmaz Türkkan, Gökçen& Niazkar, Hamid Reza& Türkkan, Yusuf Alptekin. Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139541
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1139541
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر