A Mathematical Model to Investigate the Transmission of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

الملخص EN

Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries.

Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.

To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium.

It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when R0<1.

The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature.

The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases.

An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number R0 is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as R0≈2.7.