Modelling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies

الملخص EN

We propose and analyze a compartmental nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the typhoid fever outbreak and optimal control strategies in a community with varying population.

The model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproductive number that represents the epidemic indicator is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix.

Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined.

The model exhibits a forward transcritical bifurcation and the sensitivity analysis is performed.

The optimal control problem is designed by applying Pontryagin maximum principle with three control strategies, namely, the prevention strategy through sanitation, proper hygiene, and vaccination; the treatment strategy through application of appropriate medicine; and the screening of the carriers.

The cost functional accounts for the cost involved in prevention, screening, and treatment together with the total number of the infected persons averted.

Numerical results for the typhoid outbreak dynamics and its optimal control revealed that a combination of prevention and treatment is the best cost-effective strategy to eradicate the disease.