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Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016
المؤلفون المشاركون
Zhang, Tailei
Li, Hui
Lu, Xiaobo
Song, Yateng
Wang, Kai
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-14، 14ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2020-04-24
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
14
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), known as kala-azar, is a serious parasitic disease.
After malaria, VL is the second largest parasitic killer.
This paper focuses on the VL transmission around sandflies, dogs, and people.
Kashgar is located on the southwestern edge of Xinjiang, where kala-azar parasite infection occurs every year.
According to the cases reported in the Kashgar Prefecture from 2004 to 2016, we proposed a dynamic model based on these three populations.
The SEIR model was established for human population, the SI model was established for sandfly population, and the SI model was established for dog population.
We fitted the model to cumulative cases from 2004 to 2016 for the epidemic in Kashgar and predicted that the cumulative incidence of kala-azar in Kashgar would continue to increase, but its growth rate would gradually slow down, which means that the number of cases would gradually decrease every year.
We also estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.49–1.93).
The sensitivity analysis shows that the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contributes the most to the basic reproduction number, while the transmission proportion of sandfly to the susceptible person and the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contribute the most to the number of leishmaniasis human cases.
Therefore, according to the sensitivity analysis results, reducing the contact between sandflies and dogs is an effective way to reduce kala-azar.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Song, Yateng& Zhang, Tailei& Li, Hui& Wang, Kai& Lu, Xiaobo. 2020. Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016. Complexity،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1142222
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Song, Yateng…[et al.]. Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016. Complexity No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1142222
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Song, Yateng& Zhang, Tailei& Li, Hui& Wang, Kai& Lu, Xiaobo. Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016. Complexity. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1142222
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1142222
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر
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