Electricity Demand Projection Using a Path-Coefficient Analysis and BAG-SA Approach: A Case Study of China

الملخص EN

Path-coefficient analysis is utilized to investigate the direct and indirect effects of economic growth, population growth, urbanization rate, industrialization level, and carbon intensity on electricity demand of China.

To improve the projection accuracy of electricity demand, this study proposes a hybrid bat algorithm, Gaussian perturbations, and simulated annealing (BAG-SA) optimization method.

The proposed BAG-SA algorithm not only inherits the simplicity and efficiency of the standard BA with a capability of searching for global optimality but also enhances local search ability and speeds up the global convergence rate.

The BAG-SA algorithm is employed to optimize the coefficients of the multiple linear and quadratic forms of electricity demand estimation model.

Results indicate that the proposed algorithm has higher precision and reliability than the coefficients optimized by other single-optimization methods, such as genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm, or bat algorithm.

And the quadratic form of BAG-SA electricity demand estimation model has better fitting ability compared with the multiple linear form of the model.

Therefore, the quadratic form of the model is applied to estimate electricity demand of China from 2016 to 2030.

The findings of this study demonstrate that China’s electricity demand will reach 14925200 million KWh in 2030.