Research on a Grey Prediction Model of Population Growth Based on a Logistic Approach

الملخص EN

The classical population growth models include the Malthus population growth model and the logistic population growth model, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages.

To address the disadvantages of the two models, this paper establishes a grey logistic population growth prediction model, based on the modeling mechanism of the grey prediction model and the characteristics of the logistic model, which uses the least-squares method to estimate the maximum population capacity.

In accordance with the data characteristics of population growth, the weakening buffer operator is used to establish the weakening buffer operator grey logistic population growth prediction model, which improves its accuracy, thus improving the classic population prediction model.

Four actual case datasets are used simultaneously, and the two classical grey prediction models are compared.

The results of the six evaluation indicators show that the effects of the new model demonstrate obvious advantages.

Finally, the new model is applied to the population forecast of Chongqing, China.

The prediction results suggest that the population may reach a peak in 2020 and decline in the future.

This finding is consistent with the logistic population growth model.