Modeling Financial Intraday Jump Tail Contagion with High Frequency Data Using Mutually Exciting Hawkes Process

الملخص EN

Financial extreme jumps in asset price may propagate across stock markets and lead to the market-wide crashes, which severely threatens the stability of the financial system.

In order to analyzing the contagion features of jump tail risk, this paper proposes a mutually exciting contagion model based on Hawkes process with intraday high frequency data.

We use a simple two-stage method that first extracts the jump component nonparametrically from the high frequency data and then models the intraday jump tail using mutually exciting Hawkes process.

Moreover, we take both the occurrence time and magnitude of jump into account in modeling the conditional intensity of Hawkes process.

The proposed method is applied to the five-minute high frequency data of the Chinese stock market.

The empirical results show that, for the two main Chinese stock markets, only background intensity is significant in the Shanghai stock market, while mutually exciting effect is significant in the Shenzhen stock market.

Both the location and size of jump in the Shanghai stock market have significant stimulation to the next occurrences of jump in the Shenzhen stock market.

Furthermore, the proposed model performs very well in predicting the future jump tail events.