Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Monthly Crash Counts on Freeway Segments with Temporal Correlation
المؤلفون المشاركون
Wen, Huiying
Zeng, Qiang
Sun, Jiaren
المصدر
Journal of Advanced Transportation
العدد
المجلد 2017، العدد 2017 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2017)، ص ص. 1-8، 8ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2017-10-24
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
8
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
As the basis of traffic safety management, crash prediction models have long been a prominent focus in the field of freeway safety research.
Studies usually take years or seasons as the observed time units, which may result in heterogeneity in crash frequency.
To eliminate that heterogeneity, this study analyzes monthly crash counts and develops Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects, lag-1 autoregression (AR-1), and both (REAR-1) to accommodate the multilevel structure and temporal correlation in crash data.
The candidate models are estimated and evaluated in the freeware WinBUGS using a crash dataset obtained from the Kaiyang Freeway in Guangdong Province, China.
Significant temporal effects are found in the three models, and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) results show that taking temporal correlation into account considerably improves the model fit compared with the Poisson model.
The hierarchical models also avoid any misidentification of the factors with significant safety effects, because their variances are greater than in the Poisson model.
The DIC value of the AR-1 model is substantially lower than that of the random effect model and equivalent to that of the REAR-1 model, which indicates the superiority of the lag-1 autoregressive structure in accounting for the temporal effects in crash frequency.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Zeng, Qiang& Sun, Jiaren& Wen, Huiying. 2017. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Monthly Crash Counts on Freeway Segments with Temporal Correlation. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170784
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Zeng, Qiang…[et al.]. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Monthly Crash Counts on Freeway Segments with Temporal Correlation. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170784
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Zeng, Qiang& Sun, Jiaren& Wen, Huiying. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Monthly Crash Counts on Freeway Segments with Temporal Correlation. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170784
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1170784
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر