HbA1c-Based Score Model for Predicting Death Risk in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

الملخص EN

Aim.

To establish a new score model to predict risk of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Methods.

This was a retrospective study of 147 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus who came to Beijing Ditan Hospital between October 2008 and June 2013.

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain the independent factors associated with death risk.

A new score model was devised according to these factors.

Results.

A prediction score model composed of HbA1c, NLR, age, and CTP class was devised, which ranged from 0 to 7.

AUROC of the score was 0.853 (P<0.001, 95% CI: 0.791–0.915).

Scores 0–2, 3-4, and 5–7 identified patients as low-, medium-, and high-risk categories.

The cumulative survival rate was 93.6%, 83.0%, and 74.5% in the low-risk group in 1, 2, and 3 years, while it was 64.0%, 46.0%, and 26.0% in the medium-risk group, whereas it was 24.0%, 12.0%, and 6.0% in the high-risk group, respectively.

The cumulative survival rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than that in the medium-risk group and high-risk group (P<0.001).

Conclusion.

The HbA1c-based score model can be used to predict death risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus.