The Driving Risk Analysis and Evaluation in Rightward Zone of Expressway Reconstruction and Extension Engineering

الملخص EN

In the expressway reconstruction and expansion engineering, the form of rightward zone is increasingly adopted, and its complicated traffic conditions can easily cause traffic accidents.

In order to quickly and effectively grasp the traffic risk of the right diversion section, this study employs average speed, the coefficient of variation, the equivalent minimum safety distance, and the deceleration as evaluation indexes of driving risk, and then analyses the influence rules of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section on each evaluation index by using Vissim simulation software.

On the basis of this, we determine the weight of each evaluation index by the entropy method and establish the driving risk index evaluation model of the work zone with multiple linear regression.

The results show that the partial regression coefficients of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section to the driving risk index are 0.059, 0.317, and 0.15, respectively.

Finally, in this paper, we analyze the traffic risk of example section based on the driving risk evaluation model.

The results of evaluation are consistent with the number of measured conflicts.

This study proposes a new method for predicting the traffic risk of the expressway reconstruction and extension engineering, which can provide a reference for the development of safety management measures in the rightward zone.