Construction of Nomograms for Predicting Lung and Bone Metastases in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma and Identification of Patients Who Can Benefit from Chemotherapy

الملخص EN

Objective.

The purpose of our study is to build nomograms for predicting the possibility of lung metastasis (LM) and bone metastasis (BM) in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

Methods.

1527 patients diagnosed with ICC between 2010 and 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to recognize the predictors of LM and BM, respectively.

Then two nomograms were established.

We applied the C-index, calibration plot, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the novel nomograms.

The maximum values of the Youden indexes from the ROC curves were utilized to select the cutoff points of the nomograms.

The Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used to evaluate the effect of chemotherapy in different groups.

The bootstrap resampling method was chosen for internal validation.

Results.

Five predictors for LM and three predictors for BM were identified, and two nomograms were constructed.

The nomograms had high values of C-indexes, reaching 0.821 (95% CI 0.772–0.871) for LM and 0.759 (95% CI 0.700–0.818) for BM.

C-indexes of 0.814 for LM and 0.749 for BM were also observed in internal validation.

The calibration plots, ROC curves, and DCAs exhibited favorable performances for predicting LM and BM.

The cutoff points of total points in nomograms were 108 for LM and 144 for BM, which could distinguish between high-risk and low-risk groups for LM and BM.

Chemotherapy is suggested to undergo for patients in high-risk groups.

Conclusions.

The nomograms could assess the possibility of LM and BM in ICC patients and determine the optimal treatment.