Optimal Profile Limits for Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR)‎ Influenced by Haemorrhage and Unsafe Abortion in South Sudan

المؤلفون المشاركون

Abdollahian, Mali
Marion, Kaye
Makuei, Gabriel

المصدر

Journal of Pregnancy

العدد

المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-13، 13ص.

الناشر

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

تاريخ النشر

2020-06-01

دولة النشر

مصر

عدد الصفحات

13

التخصصات الرئيسية

الأمراض
الطب البشري

الملخص EN

Maternal mortality rate (MMR) is one of the main worldwide public health challenges.

Presently, the high levels of MMR are a common problem in the world public health and especially, in developing countries.

Half of these maternal deaths occur in Sub-Saharan Africa where little or nothing progress has been made.

South Sudan is one of the developing countries which has the highest MMR.

Thus, this paper deploys statistical analysis to identify the significant physiological causes of MMR in South Sudan.

Prediction models based on Poisson Regression are then developed to predict MMR in terms of the significant physiological causes.

Coefficients of determination and variance inflation factor are deployed to assess the influence of the individual causes on MMR.

Efficacy of the models is assessed by analyzing their prediction errors.

The paper for the first time has used optimization procedures to develop yearly lower and upper profile limits for MMR.

Hemorrhaging and unsafe abortion are used to achieve UN 2030 lower and upper MMR targets.

The statistical analysis indicates that reducing haemorrhaging by 1.91% per year would reduce MMR by 1.91% (95% CI (42.85–52.53)), reducing unsafe abortion by 0.49% per year would reduce MMR by 0.49% (95% CI (11.06–13.56)).

The results indicate that the most influential predictors of MMR are; hemorrhaging (38%), sepsis (11.5%), obstructed labour (11.5%), unsafe abortion (10%), and indirect causes such as anaemia, malaria, and HIV/AIDs virus (29%).

The results also show that to obtain the UN recommended MMR levels of minimum 21 and maximum 42 by 2030, the Government and other stakeholders should simultaneously, reduce haemorrhaging from the current value of 62 to 33.38 and 16.69, reduce unsafe abortion from the current value of 16 to 8.62 and 4.31.

Thirty years of data is used to develop the optimal reduced Poisson Model based on hemorrhaging and unsafe abortion.

The model with R2 of 92.68% can predict MMR with mean error of −0.42329 and SE-mean of 0.02268.

The yearly optimal level of hemorrhage, unsafe abortion, and MMR can aid the government and other stakeholders on resources allocation to reduce the risk of maternal death.

نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)

Makuei, Gabriel& Abdollahian, Mali& Marion, Kaye. 2020. Optimal Profile Limits for Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) Influenced by Haemorrhage and Unsafe Abortion in South Sudan. Journal of Pregnancy،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1189962

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)

Makuei, Gabriel…[et al.]. Optimal Profile Limits for Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) Influenced by Haemorrhage and Unsafe Abortion in South Sudan. Journal of Pregnancy No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1189962

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)

Makuei, Gabriel& Abdollahian, Mali& Marion, Kaye. Optimal Profile Limits for Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR) Influenced by Haemorrhage and Unsafe Abortion in South Sudan. Journal of Pregnancy. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1189962

نوع البيانات

مقالات

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

الملاحظات

Includes bibliographical references

رقم السجل

BIM-1189962