Research on the Pricing of Global Drought Catastrophe Bonds

الملخص EN

The rapid development of catastrophe bonds provides a new idea for catastrophe risk dispersion, since its traditional means fail to afford the economic losses caused by the global drought catastrophe.

With the deepening of the concept of the community with a shared future for mankind, there is an opportunity to issue global drought catastrophe bonds through international cooperation.

Based on the data of global drought catastrophe losses from 1900 to 2018, this paper selects 21 countries as the primary participants of international cooperation and studies the pricing of drought catastrophe bonds by the POT model and high quantile estimation.

The results show that the first-class bond has a 10% occurrence probability with the trigger point of $252.54 million, and the second-class one has a 35% occurrence probability with the trigger point being $117.13 million.

In line with high quartile estimates, the one-year principal-protected catastrophe bonds with a face value of $1,000 are valued at $957.14 and $939.29, respectively.

Besides, the principal portion of the lost bonds is $912.50 and $783.04, while the total of it is $867.86 and $626.79, respectively.