An Improved Nonhomogeneous Discrete Grey Model and Its Application

الملخص EN

In recent years, the nonhomogeneous grey model has received much attention owing to its flexibility and applicability of forecasting small samples.

To improve further the prediction accuracy of the nonhomogeneous grey model, this paper is to introduce a new whitening equation with variable coefficient into the original nonhomogeneous grey model, which is abbreviated as ONGM1,1,k,c.

First of all, the detailed computational steps of the time response function of the novel model and the restored values of the raw data sequence are deduced through grey modelling techniques.

Secondly, two empirical examples from the previous literature are conducted to prove the validity of the novel model.

Finally, the novel model is applied to forecast natural gas demand of China, and the results show that the novel model has a better prediction performance compared with other commonly used grey models, including GM1,1, DGM1,1, NGM1,1,k,c, and NGBM1,1.