Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model

المؤلفون المشاركون

Liu, Jianye
Li, Zuxin
Luo, Dongkun
Liu, Ruolei

المصدر

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

العدد

المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-15، 15ص.

الناشر

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

تاريخ النشر

2020-05-12

دولة النشر

مصر

عدد الصفحات

15

التخصصات الرئيسية

هندسة مدنية

الملخص EN

Wandering of oil prices at lower values and the bitter reality have forced people to look for a more accurate valuation method for overseas oil and gas extraction of China.

However, the currently available resource classification method, discount cash flow (DCF) method, and real option method all suffer from their own disadvantages.

This paper identifies multiple uncertainty factors such as oil prices and reserves.

It then investigates the transmission mechanism of how each uncertainty factor impacts the oil and gas extraction value and quantifies the transmission efficiency.

The probability distribution patterns of each uncertainty factor have been determined; the trinomial tree option pricing model is modified, with consideration upon the nonstandardness of the probability distribution.

Decision points and strategies space are designed in accordance with the practical oil and gas production; and the Bermuda option is adopted to replace the conventional decision-based tree model with the probability-based tree.

Finally, a backward algorithm is developed to calculate the probability at each decision point, which avoids difficulties in determining the asset volatility ratio; and a case study is presented to demonstrate application of the proposed method.

Results show that decision rights for overseas investment are valuable.

The value of extraction does not yet necessarily grow with higher uncertainty, and instead, it is under joint effects of the cash flow and strategy space.

So, valuation should incorporate the composite value of future cash flow and decision rights.

Volatility of the value of extraction is not solely dependent on the oil price, but affected by multiple factors.

Similar to the Bermuda option, the decision-making behavior for oil and gas extraction occurs only at finite decision points, to which the trinomial tree option pricing model is applicable.

The adoption of probability distribution can to a great extent exploit the uncertain information.

Replacement of the decision-based tree with the probability-based tree provides more accurate probability distribution of the calculated value of extraction, and moreover the disperse degree of the probability can reflect how high risks are, which is conducive to decision-making for investment.

نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)

Liu, Jianye& Li, Zuxin& Luo, Dongkun& Liu, Ruolei. 2020. Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1195441

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)

Liu, Jianye…[et al.]. Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1195441

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)

Liu, Jianye& Li, Zuxin& Luo, Dongkun& Liu, Ruolei. Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1195441

نوع البيانات

مقالات

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

الملاحظات

Includes bibliographical references

رقم السجل

BIM-1195441