A Simulation Study on the Risk Assessment of the Modernization of Traditional Sports Culture Based on a Cellular Automaton Model

الملخص EN

Based on the cellular automaton model, the risk of modernization of traditional sports culture is evaluated and measured by using the methods of documentary, interview, and simulation experiments.

The results of simulation experiment show that, in the complex system of the modernization of traditional sports culture, the mutation factors will lead to the sudden decline of the survival suitability of traditional sports culture and the risk of being unable to evolve; in the process of the modernization of traditional sports culture, there are two kinds of risks: self-extinction of dying out and self-extinction of homogenization; risk of dislocation failure lies in the government’s support policies; risk of imbalance between fitness and scale allocation lies in modernity of derivative traditional sports culture.

Countermeasures.

The government should measure the environmental carrying capacity of the development of traditional sports culture in the region according to the regional resource situation; on this basis, heterogeneous sports activities are selectively introduced, the vitality of local traditional sports culture is enhanced, and the policy support and intervention time are reasonably controlled, to promote the balanced allocation of the suitability and scale of the derivative traditional sports culture.