Study on Grey Correlation Degree Decision-Making Model for Investment Scheme on High-Grade Highways in Western China

الملخص EN

Under the impact of the government’s policies to expand domestic demand and maintain economic growth, the western area acquired a large amount of funding for infrastructure construction.

The high-grade highways became the key project attracting investment because of its great development potential and strong transportation adaptability.

However, the special geographical conditions in the western area created numerous barriers for the construction of high-grade highways, including many investment influencing factors, great investment risks and uncertainties, and high difficulty in defining the investment effect.

In view of the goals in technical advancement and economic rationality for the investment scheme of high-grade highways, the possible influencing factors of the investment scheme decision-making of the high-grade highways in western China were first given comprehensive analysis.

Through literature review and field investigation, 67 influencing factors of investment scheme decision-making were determined by the cost decomposition method and expert investigation method.

Then, the influence degree of each factor was analyzed by using the Delphi method and entropy method.

According to the sorting results, 49 important factors were reserved as the detailed index for investment scheme decision-making.

Afterwards, the index system for investment scheme decision-making consisting of 2 target factors, 5 first-level indexes, 13 second-level indexes, and 49 third-level indexes was constructed.

Based on this, the decision-making model of investment scheme for high-grade highways was established by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and grey theory.

Specially, the standardized index matrix of investment scheme was determined by AHP, and the relation degree of each scheme was calculated by grey correlation degree, and then the optimal scheme was shaped by the size of comprehensive relation degree.

Finally, the grey correlation degree decision-making model of the investment scheme was applied to a highway project located in Gansu province, China.

The results showed that the optimal investment scheme determined by the decision model was consistent with the scheme actually adopted, indicating that the model has good operability and practicability.

In this paper, a grey correlation degree decision-making model of investment scheme for high-grade highways in western China was proposed, providing an effective theoretical basis and valuable practical experience for the investment scheme decision-making of transportation infrastructure under special environments.