A Forecast Combination Framework with Multi-Time Scale for Livestock Products’ Price Forecasting
المؤلفون المشاركون
Ling, Liwen
Zhang, Dabin
Mugera, Amin W.
Chen, Shanying
Xia, Qiang
المصدر
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
العدد
المجلد 2019، العدد 2019 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2019)، ص ص. 1-11، 11ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2019-10-20
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
11
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
China’s livestock market has experienced exceptionally severe price fluctuations over the past few years.
In this paper, based on the well-established idea of “forecast combination,” a forecast combination framework with different time scales is proposed to improve the forecast accuracy for livestock products.
Specifically, we combine the forecasts from multi-time scale, i.e., the short-term forecast and the long-term forecast.
Forecasts derived from multi-time scale introduce complementary information about the dynamics of price movements, thus increasing the diversities within the modeling process.
Moreover, we investigate a total of ten combination methods with different weighting schemes, including linear and nonlinear combination.
The empirical results show that (i) forecast performance can be remarkably improved with this novel combination idea, and short-term forecast model is more suitable for the products with a relatively high volatility, e.g., mutton and beef; (ii) geometric mean, which provides a nonlinear combination, is the most effective one among all the combination methods; and (iii) variance-based weighting scheme can yield a superior result compared to the best individual forecast, especially for the products such as egg and beef.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Ling, Liwen& Zhang, Dabin& Mugera, Amin W.& Chen, Shanying& Xia, Qiang. 2019. A Forecast Combination Framework with Multi-Time Scale for Livestock Products’ Price Forecasting. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1197354
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Ling, Liwen…[et al.]. A Forecast Combination Framework with Multi-Time Scale for Livestock Products’ Price Forecasting. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1197354
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Ling, Liwen& Zhang, Dabin& Mugera, Amin W.& Chen, Shanying& Xia, Qiang. A Forecast Combination Framework with Multi-Time Scale for Livestock Products’ Price Forecasting. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1197354
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1197354
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر