A Novel Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting Model Based on Fuzzy Information Granulation and MEA-SVM Model

الملخص EN

Accurately predicting the price of agricultural commodity is very important for evading market risk, increasing agricultural income, and accomplishing government macroeconomic regulation.

With the price index predictions of 6 commodities of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) as examples, this paper proposed a novel agricultural commodity price forecasting model which combined the fuzzy information granulation, mind evolutionary algorithm (MEA), and support vector machine (SVM).

Firstly, the time series data of agricultural commodity price index was transformed into fuzzy information granulation particles made up of Low, R, and Up, which represented the trend and magnitude of price movement.

Secondly, MEA algorithm was employed to seek the optimal parameters c and g for SVM to establish the MEA-SVM model.

Finally, FOA price index fluctuation range and change trend in the future were predicted by the MEA-SVM model.

The empirical analysis showed that the MEA-SVM model was effective and had higher prediction accuracy and faster calculation speed in the forecasting of agricultural commodity price.