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Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models
المؤلفون المشاركون
Herui, Cui
Wu, Ruirui
Zhao, Tian
المصدر
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
العدد
المجلد 2018، العدد 2018 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2018)، ص ص. 1-11، 11ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2018-07-02
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
11
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Environmental issues caused by energy consumption have attracted increasing attention recently.
Shanxi Province, a typical energy-dominated region in China, has long-term dependency on coal industry generating extensive economic growth, which is detrimental to green development.
Distinguished from previous studies ignoring driving factors of energy consumption, this paper establishes a vector autoregression (VAR) model to dynamically identify the drivers of energy consumption based on STIRPAT model in Shanxi Province from 1990 to 2015.
It can be obtained from the impulse response analysis that a positive shock in population, GDP, and urbanization level, respectively, positively affect energy consumption, and a positive change in technology negatively affects energy consumption in the long run.
The variance decomposition results indicate that fluctuation in energy consumption explained by the innovation of the urbanization level accounts for 23.18%, which plays a prevailing role in increasing energy consumption.
Meanwhile, the forecasting results of GM (1,1) model manifest that energy consumption in Shanxi Province generally has an increasing trend from 2016 to 2025.
Consequently, Shanxi can achieve green development through optimizing energy structure, promoting the transformation of resource-based cities, and promoting low-carbon technological innovation.
This paper can be available for other resource-based regions analogous to Shanxi.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Herui, Cui & Wu, Ruirui& Zhao, Tian. 2018. Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207384
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Herui, Cui…[et al.]. Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207384
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Herui, Cui & Wu, Ruirui& Zhao, Tian. Dynamic Decomposition Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province Based on VAR and GM (1, 1) Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207384
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1207384
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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