الوضع الحالي و التصور المستقبلي للحالة التغذوية في مصر

الملخص EN

There are many foods that are eaten by humans, and these substances vary from country to country and sometimes in different regions of the same country, and provides food human essential nutrients necessary as the meal provides the calories required for the body, and contains foods and compounds, including carbohydrates, proteins and fats, Whether Egypt needs all imported food; The research aims to identify the nutritional status in Egypt and its future perception by identifying the average quantities of energy, protein and fat available per CAPITA per day and the possibility of providing a quantity of imported food.

The research also relied on descriptive and quantitative analysis method, The research was also based on secondary data for the economic affairs sector.

The total average amount of energy available per person per day for the period (2016-2000) is about 4060.65 cal / day, and for protein and fat about 114.54 and 73.54 g / day respectively of their sources: plant products, animal and fish, accounting for about 92.24% 7.06%, 0.68% of the total respectively of energy and about 76.94%, 17.86%, 5.08% of the total, respectively of the protein And about 73.88%, 24.84%, 0.80% of the total respectively for fat and the last five years accounted for 92.17%, 7.10%, 0.71% of of the total respectively for energy and about 75.19%, 19.49%, 5.27% of The total protein, fat, protein, and fat respectively accounted for 60.93%, 60.74%, 16.53%, respectively and the average energy for the last five years was 57.89% , 59.72%, 13.11% of the total.

The average per capita available energy per capita per day differed after the 2008 global food crisis.

There was a statistically significant annual decrease at a mean level of 1% in the average available quantity per capita of 118.16 kcal / day; the average available amount of protein and fat is not different Before and after the global food crisis; while there is a statistically significant annual increase at the level of 1% in the average quantity per capita of protein per day estimated at 3.22 g / day.

This may be due to the implementation of a number of fisheries projects, which in turn led to an annual increase in the average Available per person per day from him.

The prediction of the nutritional status of Egypt for the period (2017-2022) using the ARIMA model and the selection of the best model according to the AIC standard for average energy, protein and fat per capita of plant, animal and fishery products is expected to increase by an average of 9.21%, The average per capita energy consumption is expected to increase by 9.19%.

the average amount of protein from animal and fish products is expected to increase by about 3.5% 2.35% and decreased by about 10.79% Gat plant, and lower average for a group of grain by about 20.98%;The average per capita protein is expected to decline by 7.28%.

The amount of fat from vegetable and fish products is expected to decrease by 11.36% and 21.57% and by 2.88% for animal products, by 12.94%.The individual fat is about 8.55%.

The Research recommends to decision-makers that: 1.The need to work on reducing the quantities consumed energy, where the average per capita consumption of energy consumed about 4060.65 cal / day, which is higher than the average recommended globally and the most important sources are the group of grains.

2.The importance of expansion in fisheries projects where the global food crisis has increased the average per capita protein at 3.22 g/ day after, especially from the fish group.