Linear and nonlinear regression between ABO RH blood groups and risk of HIV, HBV and HCV among Syrian donors

الملخص EN

Blood donation flow is monitored, over the period 2011 while 2015, into Damascus blood bank, to help forecast how to balance the supply and demand on one hand and investigate the presence of viruses among donors on the other.

top priority has been ensuring surplus supply.

this paper is concerned with the spread of viruses among donors.

the study sample in this research is composed of five hundredtwenty five thousand and one hundred seventy seven (525 177) donors.

a correlation matrix between all ABO / Rh groups as well as HIV, HBV, and HCV are extracted and analyzed according to spearman correlation coefficient since most variables were found not to follow normal distribution.

polynomial regression technique is used to estimate the relationships and models relating each of the three viruses to all the ABO / RS blood groups are formulated.

for positive blood flow rhesus, AB+ is the highest vulnerable to be infected with all three viruses (1.2% with HIV, 6.8% HCV, 13% HBV) ; B+ ranks second (0.5% HIV, 2.8% HCV, 5.3% HBV) and O+ comes in third place (0.3% HIV, 3% HBV), while A+ is last (0.2% HIV, 2% HBV).

on the other hand, negative blood flow rhesus did not follow the same pattern.

it has been noticed that HIV correlated only with B- with a 1.5% occurrence.

As for HCV, there is no correlation of statistical significance, whatsoever, with any negative blood flow rhesus so no statistical model was formulated.

hepatitis b, however, is related to negative rhesus with linear, quadratic, and cubic models.