أثر ارتفاع أسعار النفط على متغيرات التجارة الخارجية في الجزائر: دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة (1980-2018)‎ باستخدام نموذج VECM

الملخص EN

This study aims to investigate the impact of high oil prices on foreign trade variables during the period 1980-2018, using the error correction vector model (VECM), the results of Johansen test indicate the existing of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the study variables.

the impulse response function (IRF) proved that the oil price rising positively affects the foreign trade variables.

The results of the variance decomposition showed that the oil price explains most of the changes that occur in Exports and imports, as well as the weak percentage of the changes that happen in both real exchange rate in the short and long term, the causality test results also proved the existence of a two-way relationship between exports and the price of oil, and a one-way causal relationship moving from the oil price and the exchange rate to imports.