Simulating cash flow model for mega construction projects in Egypt

الملخص EN

This research presents a cash flow construction road projects prediction model.

the model based upon actual current invoices analysis and payments data of road construction projects.

initial results indicate that this simple model is best way for predicting future cash flows especially construction road projects.

the main concern is to look at highway road tender projects.

this investigation could be used by road authorities who manage multiple projects.

it could be used for providing a forecast technique of new project payments.

latest research from general authority for road, bridges and land transporting (GARBLT) projects from 2003 to 2020 were analyzed.

this data is used to implement mathematical models for road construction to represent monthly payment invoices for different project types.

cost estimates of financial data were collected from 78 highway road contracts which are consist of 46 highway strengthening contracts and 32 highway overlay contracts.

all collected data from field was arranged into main categories and/or subcategories according to project type and contract amount.

a polynomial regression analysis for seventh degree is done for all collected data, and then regression curve is constructed.

statistically equations were performed and taken into research consideration can provide payment curve expectation.

finally, proposed built in model by using Microsoft excel was implemented to develop investigation results.

the proposed model was named as multi road projects cash flow model "MRPCFM".

provided research methodology can help highway sectors to enforce their projects to proposed model for expect better cash flow predictions.

this investigation may give more benefits to related researchers for predicting cash flows and directions.

also, any agency could provide improvements for the model.

the tender information concept was used to analyze and draw cash flow estimations in contracted projects execution stage, to understand the goal of short-term financial demands which are occurring during execution stage.

in practice, owners of the road projects can use the model to show amount demanded and cash distribution before the projects execution to revise and update new predictions from previous actual cash flow data.