Forecasting the cultivated areas of Qat crop to 2030 and its impact on food security in the republic of Yemen using ARIMA model
العناوين الأخرى
التنبؤ بالمساحات المزروعة لمحصول القات حتى عام 2030 و أثرها على الأمن الغذائي في الجمهورية اليمنية باستخدام نموذج ARIMA
المؤلفون المشاركون
al-Hakimi, Sayf Salam
al-Sinwi, Adnan Abd al-Wali
المصدر
Journal of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences
العدد
المجلد 5، العدد 1 (31 مارس/آذار 2021)، ص ص. 89-115، 27ص.
الناشر
تاريخ النشر
2021-03-31
دولة النشر
فلسطين (قطاع غزة)
عدد الصفحات
27
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
This study aimed to forecast and predict the areas planted with Qat tree until the year 2030 in the Republic of Yemen, using the most prominent autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models throughout the whole country.
this model was adopted in this study for its high accuracy in analysis.
this methodology relies on a combination of autoregressive models and integrated moving averages.
the results show that arima (1.0.1) is the most appropriate model for forecasting and predicting Qat areas in Yemen until 2030 according to statistical tests of the accuracy of the predictive models.
The results indicate an increase in the cultivated areas expected in 2030, which will be 235826 hectares of Qat areas at an annual growth rate higher than the annual growth rate for the time series while the area's annual growth rate reached (30%).
this increase is at the expense of the shortage of the significance of cash crops such as coffee and grains, based on the results of the proposed model for the next ten years.
this expansion represents economic and social risks to the agricultural sector.
accordingly, the study recommends that decision-makers need to reformulate and draw economic and social policies for the coming periods to limit the spread of this crop, which negatively affects groundwater depletion because Yemen is one of the poorest countries in terms of water storage.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
al-Sinwi, Adnan Abd al-Wali& al-Hakimi, Sayf Salam. 2021. Forecasting the cultivated areas of Qat crop to 2030 and its impact on food security in the republic of Yemen using ARIMA model. Journal of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences،Vol. 5, no. 1, pp.89-115.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1308023
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
al-Sinwi, Adnan Abd al-Wali& al-Hakimi, Sayf Salam. Forecasting the cultivated areas of Qat crop to 2030 and its impact on food security in the republic of Yemen using ARIMA model. Journal of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences Vol. 5, no. 1 (Mar. 2021), pp.89-115.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1308023
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
al-Sinwi, Adnan Abd al-Wali& al-Hakimi, Sayf Salam. Forecasting the cultivated areas of Qat crop to 2030 and its impact on food security in the republic of Yemen using ARIMA model. Journal of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences. 2021. Vol. 5, no. 1, pp.89-115.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1308023
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes appendices : p. 111-115
رقم السجل
BIM-1308023
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر