تحليل العلاقة السببية بين الإيرادات الضريبية و إجمالي الناتج المحلي في ماليزيا : دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذجي تصحيح الخطأ و التكامل المشترك

الملخص EN

This study examines the casual relationship between tax revenues and gross domestic product (GDP) in Malaysia using cointegration and vector error correction (VEC) models.

The tax revenues are disaggregated into income taxes, domestic sale taxes, and foreign trade taxes.

The results of cointegration test indicate the existence of a stationary long-run relationship between taxes and GDP.

The estimated VEC models suggest tax revenues are determined by GDP in the long run.

Indeed, we found a feedback causal relationship in the short run between total taxes and GDP; income taxes and GDP; and domestic sale taxes and GDP.

Based on theses results one could argue the important of domestic taxes as fiscal instruments which affect economic growth in the fast growing Malaysian economy in the short run.

On the other hand, the foreign trade taxes fail to affect economic growth in both long and short run in Malaysia.