اختبار العلاقة السببية بين استدامة المالية العامة و أسعار الصرف الحقيقية للدول العربية النفطية حالة الجزائر العراق و السعودية

الملخص EN

This research aims to analyze the causal relationship between the sustainability public finances capabilities of the Arab oil states and their real exchange rates in light of the instability of oil prices in the global markets.

This paper also examines and focuses on finding a standard model that can measure with acceptable quality for this relationship.

The ARDL model has been adopted after confirming its relative quality in the period (2014-2020).

A sample of Arab oil states are Algeria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, with the aim of clarifying the factors most influencing the phenomenon of sustainability public finances in support of the sustainability of their real exchange rates, especially in periods of oil shocks and their aftermath.

The applied results of this study of the study sample showed that the factors affecting the stability of real exchange rates, for Algeria are the sustainability public finances index, and for Iraq they are the two variables of the crude GDP and the oil return rate, and for Saudi Arabia, the three variables are the ratio of sustainability public finances, the gross domestic product and the ratio of Oil yield.