العوامل المحددة للطلب علي اللحوم البيضاء في مصر

الملخص EN

The research reached several results as follows: 1- There is a statistically significant increase in both the total production available for consumption and the nutritional gap of white meat estimated at about 28.24, 34.4 and 5.51 thousand tons, with an annual increase rate of about 2.59% and 3.1% and respectively, as it was found that there is a statistically significant decrease in the rate of self-sufficiency of white meat estimated at about 44% , with an annual decrease rate of about 0.45% .2- The optimal ARDL model for estimating this regression relationship is (1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1), according to the Akaike information criteria, where it represents the model with the lowest value for this criterion.

In the long run: • The price elasticity of demand for poultry is about -0.85, which is negative and less than one, which indicates that poultry is one of the necessary commodities for the consumer to meet the needs of animal protein.

In the short term: The cross elasticity of demand in relation to the real retail price of red meat this year is about 0.34, meaning that an increase in the real retail price of red meat by 10% leads to an increase in the amount of individual consumption of poultry by 3.4% .

The positive sign of the cross elasticity indicates that the two commodities, red meat and poultry, are substitutes for each other in the same year.