أثر بعض متغيرات السياسة النقدية في مؤشر سوق العراق للأوراق المالية للمدة 1990-2019 باستخدام نماذج (ARCH)‎

الملخص EN

The financial markets have received attention from decision makers in various countries of the world because of their significant role in the application of monetary policies, as they are the channel through which the effects of these policies can be transmitted, as well as the recurring crises that occur on the financial level that made users of monetary policy puzzled when Confronting or controlling inflation and the rise in the prices of financial assets, which in turn will be reflected on the economic sectors and then on the level of economic activity, which led to the financial markets being affected by many economic and monetary variables, positively or negatively, depending on the nature and conditions of that country, hence the research aims to the necessity of studying The relationship of some monetary policy variables in the Iraqi stock market index for the period 1990-2019 using (ARCH) models, where the research found from the results of statistical tests for time series data of a period of (29) years that the general variable of stock prices in Iraq was stable at the first difference I(1) And to the lack of joint integration between the variables, and that there is an effect of using the (ARCH) model, which has proven its efficiency in the field of forecasting for the Iraqi financial market index and one of the most important factors The findings of the research in the estimated model indicate that there are statistical relationships for the money supply variable and that it has a direct relationship in the financial indicator and that it has a significant effect, as for the rest of the variables for each of (inflation rate and exchange rate) it was insignificant, while we find that the interest rate had Significant effect on the general index of stock prices and its parameters were interpreted according to economic concepts.