تحليل الحساب الجاري في الأردن خلال الفترة (1998-2017)‎ و أثره على معدل البطالة

الملخص EN

The study aimed at analyzing the current account in Jordan represented by (Trade balance, workers' remittances, tourism income, foreign direct investment, foreign aid and grants) during the period 1998-2017, and seeking proposals to raise the current account's contribution to reducing unemployment.

The study assumed that there was a direct positive relationship between the current account and the unemployment rate in Jordan, and to demonstrate the validity of the hypothesis the study relied on the inductive descriptive curriculum and the statistical data analysis of study variables using the self-regression model with distributed deceleration (ARDL) and on the E-Views 9 program.

The study concluded that there is an effective contribution for both total exports and imports to the low unemployment rate through the transfer of technical and technological knowledge and the high volume of imports from intermediate goods prepared for manufacturing.

The rise of grants, foreign aid, remittances from overseas workers, the improvement of tourist income and the flow of foreign direct investment also contributed to the reduction of unemployment through investment and tourism projects, and the results of the standard analysis showed that there is a long-term common integration relationship between independent and changing variables.

There is also a oneway causal relationship to unemployment from exports, imports, foreign direct investment, aid, grants and population, and the study recommended the use of modern machinery to improve the efficiency of the productive apparatus, diversify the export structure and create local alternatives to imports.

In addition to supporting laborintensive industries and developing the agricultural sector through government support to farmers, as well as intensifying work to extract oilstone to reduce oil imports, the study also recommended encouraging foreign investment and urging national capital to invest in the interior.