سياسة الصرف و أثرها على ميزان المدفوعات في الجزائر : دراسة قياسية باستخدام نماذج أشعة تصحيح الخطأ Vecm للفترة 2000-2019

الملخص EN

The research aims to analyze the impact of the exchange policy on the balance of payments in Algeria, using annual data for each of the nominal exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, and the balance of payments balance, during the period 2000-2019.

The research relied on vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the interactive relationships between the previous variables, test the possibility of a long-term relationship between the variables, and verify Marshall Lerner's conditions for devaluation and its efficacy in Algeria.

The results showed the existence of a long-term relationship between the determinants of the exchange policy and the balance of payments balance in Algeria.

On the other hand, the results showed in the short term, the ineffectiveness of the exchange policy in correcting the balance of payments imbalances due to the weak flexibility of exports and imports towards the devaluation of the Algerian dinar, and its close link to fluctuations in oil prices.