مهارات التحليل الاستخباري و علاقتها بالثقة المفرطة في الأحكام الاحتمالية لدى ضباط و منتسبي مديرية الاستخبارات و مكافحة الإرهاب

الملخص EN

The following Research Aims Identify to: 1- Intelligence analysis skills among the Officers and members of the Directorate of Intelligence and Combat-Terrorism.

2- The Overconfidence in Contingent Judgments among the Officers and members of the Directorate of Intelligence and Combat-Terrorism.

3- The correlation between intelligence analysis skills and the Overconfidence in Contingent Judgments among the Officers and members of the Directorate of Intelligence and Combat-Terrorism according to the military rank..

This research restricted on Intelligence analysis skills and it’s Relation With the Overconfidence in Contingent Judgments among the Officers and members of the Directorate of Intelligence and Combat-Terrorism.

The sample is consisted of (224) Officers and members.

For achieving aims, the main instruments of this research were two scales for Intelligence analysis skills and the Overconfidence in Contingent Judgments.

The researcher has applied the two instruments, it is applied to the subjects on a sample and making use of statistic package of social sciences (SPSS) and (Microsoft-Excel) program, the findings were as follows: 1- The subjects of sample have Intelligence analysis skills.

2- Officers are more overconfidence in their contingent judgment than members, that the difference were with statistical indication at (0.05) indication level, for each local confidence and Global confidence.

3-.There are no correlation between Intelligence analysis skills and the Overconfidence in Contingent Judgments.

Depending on these results , the researcher states some recommendations and suggestions.