The improvement of forecasting accuracy Egyptian tourism demand using combining statistical and judgmental forecasts
المؤلفون المشاركون
Muhammad, Azzah al-Shahat
Thabit, Bahjat
Kamal, Samah
المصدر
[Journal of Financial and Commercial Research]
العدد
المجلد 23، العدد 1، ج. 3 (31 مارس/آذار 2022)، ص ص. 132-165، 34ص.
الناشر
تاريخ النشر
2022-03-31
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
34
التخصصات الرئيسية
الموضوعات
الملخص EN
study aims to examine methods for improving the accuracy of experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand of the forecasts we evaluate how accurately annual tourism arrival data in Egypt can be forecast using a combined method.
Over the forecasting period of 2018 -2022, the combined forecasts outperform the baseline forecasts produced by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL- ECM) models, demonstrating the value of implementing this integration.
Various error measures (APE), (MAPE), and (RMSPE) are used to determine forecasting effectiveness, and statistical tests were performed to evaluate forecast accuracy using the Delphi method and a range of expert judgment adjustments to integrate statistical forecasts and expert judgments.
Several forecasting models are compared to evaluate the performance of the combined method by examining the statistical and judgmentally adjusted forecasts with regression analysis.
Based on the hypothesis tests, it was concluded that the Delphi panel adjustments increased forecast accuracy.
There are several advantages to integrating expert judgments into statistical forecasts.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Muhammad, Azzah al-Shahat& Thabit, Bahjat& Kamal, Samah. 2022. The improvement of forecasting accuracy Egyptian tourism demand using combining statistical and judgmental forecasts. [Journal of Financial and Commercial Research]،Vol. 23, no. 1، ج. 3, pp.132-165.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1390778
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Muhammad, Azzah al-Shahat…[et al.]. The improvement of forecasting accuracy Egyptian tourism demand using combining statistical and judgmental forecasts. [Journal of Financial and Commercial Research] Vol. 23, no. 1, p. 3 (Jan. / Mar. 2022), pp.132-165.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1390778
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Muhammad, Azzah al-Shahat& Thabit, Bahjat& Kamal, Samah. The improvement of forecasting accuracy Egyptian tourism demand using combining statistical and judgmental forecasts. [Journal of Financial and Commercial Research]. 2022. Vol. 23, no. 1، ج. 3, pp.132-165.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1390778
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
-
رقم السجل
BIM-1390778
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر