دراسة تحليلية للتجارة الخارجية بين مصر ومجموعة الخمسة عشر

الملخص EN

The research aims to identify the most important factors that affect the increase in the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and the countries of the Group of 15, by identifying and analyzing the volume of trade flows to Egypt and the countries of the group.

And to identify the most important countries of the group that are expanding or limiting their imports from Egypt.

the research relied on the descriptive and quantitative method in analyzing the Egyptian foreign trade data with the Group of 15 countries, where the general time trend equations and foreign trade efficiency criteria were used in addition to the estimation of the gravity model.

Research results:
1) The volume of trade exchange between Egypt and the Group of Fifteen Countries represents about 11.7% of Egypt's total trade, as the value of Egypt's exports to the group amounted to about 10.7% of total Egyptian exports, and imports representing about 12.1% of Egypt's total imports, which indicates that There is a deficit of about 5239 million dollars.

2) The trade balance was in favor of Egypt with Algeria, Senegal, Nigeria, Iran, Zimbabwe, Chile, amounting to about 45, 40, 32, 8, 3 million dollars, respectively, while there was a deficit in the trade balance not in favor of Egypt with Each of Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, Peru, Kenya, Jamaica, and amounted to about -2163, -1211, -774, -710, -416, -58, -22, -6, - 3, -2, -0.45 million dollars, respectively.

3) The decrease in Egypt's ability to control its foreign imports with the G-15 countries, as the average rate of coverage of total exports for total imports between Egypt and the G-15 was about 37% , and it was found that there is a deficit in the Egyptian trade balance because the value of its exports is not sufficient to meet its expenditures import.

4) The average slope of Egyptian foreign trade and the group of 15 was about 4.2% of the value of the national income of the state of Egypt as an average for the study period, while the average slope to export was about 1.1% as an average for the same period.

5) The per capita share of exports and imports and the volume of trade with the Group of Fifteen during the study period amounted to about 32, 89, 121 dollars.

6) The values of the economic share coefficients for Egypt's total trade with the Group of 15 ranged between a minimum of about 33% in 2009 and a maximum of about 65% in 2016, with an annual average estimated at 47% .

7) The economic dependency rate ranged as a minimum of about 2.3% in 2020 and a maximum of about 4% in 2017, with an annual average estimated at about 3% during the study period.

8) By calculating the stability coefficient of Egypt's foreign trade with the Group of 15, it was found that it amounted to about 12% , which means an increase in the degree of instability in Egypt's trade and the group.

9) Egypt's total exports with the group countries achieved an actual situation greater than the hoped-for situation, with an average of about 2951.99 million dollars during the period (2010-2020).

10) Egypt's total exports with the actual G-15 countries achieved averages higher than the Mamol for about 9 countries.

Algeria comes in the first with a difference of about $424.02million, while 8 countries achieved a less than the Mamol situation, these countries are Nigeria, Iran, Indonesia, Peru, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Mexico, Jamaica with a difference of about 255.77, 122.26, 32.09, 11.32, 7.84, 3.81, 3.23, 0.56 million dollars, respectively.

Hence, it is necessary to increase the value of exports between Egypt and the countries of the Group of 15, and to focus mainly on these countries.

Recommendations:
- increase Egypt's exports to the Group of 15 countries, where commercial transactions are almost non-existent, and trying to reduce Egypt's imports from the group countries with which Egypt suffers from a trade deficit.

- Studying the needs of the population and external demand in the countries of the Group of 15 and the most important factors affecting the increase in Egypt's exports and working to disseminate this information to be a guide for producers and exporters.

- Establishing a department to evaluate and follow up on Egyptian trade agreements and work to activate them with the Group of 15 countries.