أثر التجارة الخارجية على التوظف في القطاع الصناعي مع التطبيق على الاقتصاد المصري خلال الفترة (1990-2020)‎

الملخص EN

The purpose of this study is to investigate and measure the impact of foreign trade on employment rates in the industrial sector in the Egyptian economy over the period 1990-2020.

The study relied on time series data during the study period.

A number of independent variables were used, which are: exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP, and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.

In addition, the GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP were identified as the main control variables and included in the model.

To assess the impact of foreign trade on employment rates in the industrial sector, the study relied on the ARDL approach.

The results indicated that there is a negative and insignificant impact of exports as a percentage of GDP on the employment rate in the short and long run, but this effect is minimal, as evidenced by the value of the coefficients.

The increase in exports as a percentage of GDP by 1% leads to a decrease in the employment rate by 0.005% in the long run and by 0.32% in the short run.

The results also showed that there is a negative and insignificant effect of imports as a percentage of GDP on employment rate in the long run, but this effect is minimal, as the increase in imports as a percentage of GDP by 1% leads to a decrease in the employment rate by 0.06% .

and there is a positive and significant impact of imports as a percentage of GDP on the employment rate in the short run.