واقع دوران و تسرب النقد في البنك المركزي العراقي-فرع البصرة و التنبؤ به باستعمال منهجية (Box-Jenkins)‎ للمدة (2015-2016)‎

الملخص EN

The current study deals with one of the problems facing the banking systems in developing countries، and widely in countries that suffer from instability such as Iraq، and the difficulty of controlling the border، which makes it easier to transfer the currency abroad.

This study is divided into two parts.

The first part discusses the meaning of cash leakage، its main indicators، causes، and its effect on the economy.

The second part of the study included a description of the reality of the currency leakage (the Iraqi Dinar and the US Dollar) By using monthly data on the variables (the amount of the withdrawal &the amount of the deposit) and through them the amount of cash leakage was calculated for the period (2015-2016) ،The study found that the rate of change in leakage growth is stable and increasing during the studied period for the dinar and the dollar، which indicates that the cash leakage will increase in the future، which was achieved by predicting Using the Box-Jenkins model، where the results of the forecast indicate an increase in the cash leakage during the predicted period، Which requires taking measures to control the border to prevent the leakage of currency ، And the implementation of reform policies in the banking sector to increase its effectiveness in attracting capital and restore investor's confidence in this important economic sector.