Quantifying the determinants of improved wheat variety adoption in Egypt: binary response models

الملخص EN

Wheat, the most vital strategic crop in Egypt, has been dramatically subject to international economic and political fluctuations because Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer.

Despite the efforts exerted to release early maturing and high-yielding varieties as a substitute for horizontal expansion, their diffusion remains slow in some rural areas.

No prior studies have quantified the drivers of improved wheat varieties adoption, considering Egyptian small-scale farmers.

In this work, logit and probit models are applied using primary data gathered from 143 wheat-growing farmers in Moshtohor village, Al Qalyubia Governorate, in 2021.

Although the logistic model fits the data better, both models yield similar results.

The findings confirm that education, farm size, extension service accessibility, credit accessibility, and off-farm income positively affect the adoption decision; however, it is negatively affected by the farmer's age.

In particular, extension service accessibility and credit accessibility appear to be the most influential factors within the Egyptian context.

Policymakers should put in place effective extension programs, make credit easier to get, promote private sector investment in input acquisition and distribution, encourage young farmers to join in exploring new technology and best practices, and preserve the key traits of wheat cultivars that farmers and consumers want.

Future work will refine the model by extending the survey nationwide and including other explanatory variables.