مدى تأثر سعر الصرف بتقلبات الصادرات و الواردات : دراسة قياسية لحالة الجزائر خلال الفترة (1988-2017)‎

الملخص EN

This study aimed to identify the exchange rate and highlight the reality of the Algerian exports and imports and the fluctuations that occurred during the period of (1988-2017).

the effects were also addressed in an effort to investigate the extent to which the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar was affected when compared to the dollar.

this effect was mainly attributed to the fluctuation of foreign trade.

to achieve this purpose, the researcher formulated and used a standard form in (ARDL) format due to the small size of the study sample, which contained two variables, namely exports and imports.

this form was statistically acceptable.

in order to answer the questions of the study, the researcher used the descriptive and analytical approach, as well as the economic measurement approach, as a good way to analyze, evaluate, test options and compare them on a consistent scientific basis.

the study concluded that there was a long-term relationship between the dependent variable and the explained variables, with another short-term relationship.

as for the partial significance, it was found in the effect of the imports on the exchange rate in the short term, whereas the correlation between the exchange rate and the imports was negative.

the study recommended the necessity of developing proposals and agreements guaranteeing the sale of hydrocarbons in Algerian dinars in order to create a demand for it, as well as encouraging local production to compete with the imported goods and increase the national production to reduce imports, increase exports and invest money in other various areas to bring hard currency, such as tourism services.