Recent fertility change and differentials among Kuwaitis : some implications for future migration

الملخص EN

Objectives: The main objective of the current paper is to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility from 2009-2017.

Also, related objectives are to compare the annual number of births and Total Fertility Rates (TFR) provided by the Ministry of Health and PACI.

The second objective is to reflect on the implications of the above trends and patterns on the demand for domestic and other workers in future population growth and migration.

Method: Using the annual publications from the Ministry of Health and the Central Statistical Bureau fertility among Kuwaiti nationals was studied.

PACI provided the mid-year counts for each year from 2009-2017 for all Kuwaiti women between 15-49 age group, in order to obtain the denominator for calculating age specific, and total fertility rates for each subgroup was calculated according to the governorate of residence was calculated.

Results: Consistent and linear decline in the TFR was noted in the last two decades by almost 2 children.

During the last decade, the TFR declined further by 0.6 points, from 3.7 in 2009 to 3.1 in 2017.

Thus, a fairly rapid fertility decline is occurring in the country.

However, the TFR is still about one child higher than replacement level fertility.

In age specific fertility rates (ASFRs), the largest decline occurred at ages 20-29.

A comparison of governorate-level ASFRs shows a clear gap among the governorates.

Conclusion: The trends in fertility differentials according to governorate are likely to have far-reaching implications on the relative composition of various subgroups in the country.

Declining fertility may also affect future migration to Kuwait.