تقدير الآثار الإقتصادية للتجارة الخارجية لمصر مع تكتل الكوميسا

الملخص EN

The COMESA bloc is considered one of the most important economic blocs in Africa.

which includes in its membership 21 countries.

including Egypt.

which it joined since June 29.

1998.

Despite this The volume of total and agricultural trade exchange is relatively small and the Egyptian agricultural balance with COMESA was not in the interest of Egypt.

so the research aims to analyze the total and agricultural foreign trade of Egypt with COMESA during the period 2000 - 2018.

Identify the most important variables affecting both the total and agricultural foreign trade of Egypt with COMESA.

and developing recommendations to assist decisionmakers in supporting Egypt's benefit from its accession to the COMESA bloc.

A general time trend analysis was conducted and it was concluded that The highest countries in terms of the value of Egypt's total exports to the COMESA countries came in order Libya.

Sudan.

Tunisia.

Kenya and Ethiopia.

the lowest countries in order were the Kingdom of Eswatini.

Malawi.

Seychelles.

Madagascar and Comoros.

the highest countries in terms of the value of Egypt's total imports of the COMESA countries they are Kenya.

Zambia.

Libya.

Sudan.

and Tunisia.

the least of them are Somalia.

Burundi.

Comoros.

Madagascar and Seychelles.

while the highest countries in terms of the value of Egypt's agricultural exports to COMESA countries are Libya.

Sudan.

Tunisia .

Somalia and Eritrea.

the least of them as a value are Comoros.

Madagascar.

Zambia.

Malawi and the Kingdom of Eswatini.

and for the value of Egypt's agricultural imports from the COMESA countries.

the highest values of the countries were Kenya.

Sudan.

Malawi.

Ethiopia.

Zimbabwe.The least of them are Comoros.

Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Mauritius.

the Kingdom of Eswatini.

Seychelles.

The basic and modified gravity model was estimated for total as well as agricultural exports and imports.

It was concluded that increasing the GDP of Egypt and the COMESA countries and increasing the per capita GDP in Egypt and the COMESA countries leads to an increase in Egypt's total and agricultural exports and imports to and from the COMESA countries.

in contrast to the geographical distance between Egypt and the COMESA countries.

while the existence of common borders and common language between Egypt and the COMESA countries was not statistically significant in most cases.

The research recommends studying the markets of the countries whose imports from Egypt decreases.

studying the markets of countries that Egypt reduces the value of its imports from them.

developing the infrastructure and means of transport linking between Egypt and the COMESA countries.

developing and consolidating Egyptian relations with the various COMESA countries at the level of all fields.

especially the economic ones