قياس أثر السياسات السعرية على قطاع السكر في مصر : منهجية نموذج التوازن الجزئي

الملخص EN

Sugarcane and sugar beet crops are among the crops that Egypt depends on in the sugar industry, as they contribute about 37.9% and 62.1%, respectively, of the total domestic sugar production, which represents 2.28 million tons in 2020.

the study focused on the inadequacy of local production to cover consumer needs, with a gap estimated at about 29%.

the study adopted the partial equilibrium modeling approach as a tool to measure policies' impacts, especially exchange rate liberalization, on the sugar industry sector to come up with recommendations benefiting decision-makers to improve the current situation of the sugar sector in Egypt.

accordingly, the study period (2011–2020) was divided into two periods: the first, representing the pre-liberalization period of the exchange rate (2011–2015), and the second, representing the post-liberalization period of the exchange rate (2016-2020).

the study's findings indicated that price policies during the period under analysis resulted in producers enjoying implicit subsidies and consumers being charged with implicit taxes.

it also showed a loss of production and consumption to society, as well as higher producers' welfare, while consumer welfare declined.

the positive effects on the state's general treasury yield, together with its foreign exchange earnings, are due to the impact of those price policies on stimulating producers to increase production on the one hand and declining consumption on the other, thereby reducing the gap and hence reducing the worsening of the import bill and its foreign exchange allocation.

it is noteworthy that the model indicators' values increased in the second period compared to the first period due to the Egyptian pound's depreciation against foreign currencies because of the exchange rate liberalization policy, which led to a greater increase in domestic prices.

based on the study's findings, some recommendations have been reached, perhaps the most important of which are : -the state can improve the foreign exchange situation by applying policies that generate a real return for producers, and consumers bear the real cost of consumption, which will result in increased production and rationalization of consumption, thereby decreasing imports.

-the need for concerted efforts by all stakeholders, including policymakers, researchers, and practitioners across all the sugar industry sectors, to develop and improve the value chain through developing new varieties, adopting good agricultural practices, increasing investments in processing and marketing, establishing a platform involving all stakeholders and promoting coordination among them.