Alternative method to predict the break-even oil price for financial sustainability goals : evidence from Algeria under black-Scholes model

الملخص EN

We aimed to sort-out an alternative method to predict the Break-even oil price using the benchmark model black-Sholes.

the investigation based on daily oil prices data covering the period of 02 / 01 / 2013 to 21 / 09 / 2020.

the main results highlighted a significant and strong correlation between the fiscal breakeven prices based on the black-Scholes model and the external breakeven price, with a weak correlation with the IMF's fiscal breakeven prices, which means that the black-Scholes model is outperforming to predict the fiscal oil prices in comparison with the IMF method.

the findings also indicated a negative correlation between the B-S and the reference prices indicated in Algeria's public budget