Forecasting the threat of COVID-19 and Ukraine war on energy security : an empirical study using GARCH-TGARCH

الملخص EN

Recent developments in the oil and oil-related industries have made energy security a top priority.

concerns about immediate threats to economic growth as well as long-term energy security are sparked by high costs.

to maintain the life quality for everyone in the world, there is a significant shared interest in ensuring that the globe can produce and use energy in a sustainable manner.

the primary aim of the present paper is to measure the impact of the dual shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's military action in Ukraine on oil and oil-related products SUS as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, UK natural gas and gasoline.

to realize our investigation daily data used for the period of 1st January 2020 to 7th October 2022, the selected period covered both of COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine war complications.

the main findings of the T-Garch model state that there is a positive shock affect on energy prices, particularly oil prices that highly increased, followed by a notable augmentation in the rest of energy products during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

this situation can positively affect the hydrocarbon revenues for oil-exporting countries, in the counterpart the importing-countries are most suffering from the high cost.