Economic performance and political outcomes : an analysis of the 1995 Turkish parliamentary election results

الملخص EN

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment.

The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government = s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties.

Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government = s economic performance.

A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power.

The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions.

Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and / or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago.

These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.