اختبار العلاقة السببية والديناميكية لأثر نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي على العرض النقدي في الجزائر: دراسة تحليلية قياسية باستخدام نموذج Ardl خلال الفترة (1990-2020)‎

الملخص EN

This study aims to analyze the dynamic impact of GDP growth on the Algerian money supply growth (M2) in the short and long term during the period from 1990 to 2020.

to this end a descriptive approach has been used to illustrate and analyze developments in GDP growth and M2, with adopting an econometric method relying on the autoregressive model (ARDL) and granger causality.

the findings show a significance of the GDP logarithm and its positive direct correlation with M2.

the border approach shows that there is a long-run co-integration relationship between GDP and M2.

in addition, the error correction coefficient (-0.3053) was significant at the 1% significance level indicates that 30.53% of the imbalance is corrected in the long run.

granger’s causality test shows a causal relationship from GDP to money supply, with the absence of a relationship in the opposite direction, which means that monetary expansion does not cause the expansion of GDP in Algeria throughout the analyzed period.